Nov

5

Apple is hardly worth the hair splitting, and here's why: First compare Apple's market capitalization performance to their stock performance. The executive culture there looks like they will be getting paid via stock hold dilution for a long time; considering they are also hoarding incredible amounts of cash from shareholders… that's not a pretty image.

Apple is Hollywood, Google is Silicon Valley. Apple doesn't innovate. They sell the sizzle not the steak. They had an idea (the guts) for a larger phone when everyone was going smaller; creating efficiencies from more integration between software and hardware meant they had a solid 2 year lead for a comparable product. We can romanticize the qualities of manic CEOs, rightfully, but when we do, we lose that these basic plays are what really mattered.

Now its Over. Every idea they've had in the last decade is the same idea in different sizes. Furthermore, as the net gets faster, computational devices will "hollow out". There will be less native software, AND hardware. There is going to be less physical product to compete over/with (per item, not in total). Design will matter more; this part of the story is Apple's bright spot: Lexus not Toyota.

Of course Apple's stock is undervalued. Even if Apple came out with products that doubled their sales, there are diminishing returns in the stock itself. That is the nature of mega-stocks, is it not? The rules of diversification ensure that money managers are unlikely to generate the demand necessary to make them expensive, even when they have substantial growth. Consider the structural problem: If Apple were to run to 1 trillion in the next year (100%), that would be equivalent to nearly 30% of Gross Private Savings, yet their stock would have only doubled. Do you honestly believe it is "likely to very likely" that Apple could triple or quadruple in that time period with that kind of constraint? That would take $500 billion- $1.5 trillion in value from somewhere else; relative undervaluation would become more common amongst other companies. At this point, for a medium term speculator it is probably best to buy a Jan. 2016 $500 call, and sell a $600 call for the same month to fund your venture.


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