Apr

30

In 2013, stock market return for January - April is about 12% (SPY: Dec 31 - end of april). Going back to 1994, regressed subsequent May- October returns against return of prior Jan-Aprils shows a positive correlation:

Regression Analysis: May-Oct versus Jan-Apr

The regression equation is
May-Oct = - 0.0107 + 0.753 Jan-Apr

Predictor      Coef  SE Coef      T      P
Constant   -0.01071  0.03092  -0.35  0.733
Jan-Apr      0.7530   0.4125   1.83  0.086

S = 0.115422   R-Sq = 16.4%   R-Sq(adj) = 11.5%

Though not quite significant, in the absence of a miraculous recovery in economic activity (and unlikely FED tightening), the regression equation suggests another +7% through October. 


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