Apr

22

We achieved a 20 day minimum on 4 18 2013 at 1534 in spu. It is interesting to see the expected duration of time in market days until the next 20 day mimimum:

number of days______expected duration
since last 20_______until next 20 day min
day minimum
1                  24
2                  30
3                  33
4                  36
5                  37
6                  40
7                  41
8                  42
9                  46
10                 48
11-15              45
16-20              43
21-30              41
31-50              50
51-100             39
101 and above      20

Thus, we can see that 20 day minimum are rare, and they don't exert a gravitational effect until 100 trading days have elapsed. As the observations are not independent, the standard life expectancy distributions don't fit it. However, if we were dealing with 20 day maxima in daily changes, then the standard distributions would apply and the duration to the next 20 day maximum in daily change would be approximately 40 days.


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  1. Scott on April 22, 2013 5:47 pm

    Trading/Speculating vs. buy and hold.
    I have been trading now for the past year and have done ok; I earned $20000 last year from trading an account size of $80000. I have read such books as “Intelligent investor” about 3x and I must say that the idea of leaving my money in the market for any long period of time makes me extremely sick, but it seems as if that is the only way to make money in the markets.
    My question is, is it possible to make a“living” trading stocks (I know a larger account size is needed) or is the buy and hold approach the only way to go? I have read some post on this site that seemed to lean toward buy and hold, was I mistaken?

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