Mar

7

One of the dangers of having a rookie on your team is that the rookies like to find regularities based on looking at every interval, every magnitude, every market, every combination thereof of x variables, and every time period. It's truly a search of implicitly hundreds of thousands of possibilities to come up with a regularity, fifteen on say 40 observations that has about a 5% chance of consistency with randomness assuming it was the only 1 selected. The problem is that they seem so good in isolation before you realize it was the fruit of a tremendous number of look backs, complexities, and multiple comparisons. I strive to tell them "Simplicity." Read Zellner. Another good thing to do is see all the biases from using cart or regressions trees of automatic interaction detector, and all the safeguards built into those methods, —- and of course they overfit, and multiple classify and are only recommended as preliminary by the authors. But …. but…. how destructive it is to receive one of these regularities during the middle of the day… especially when you have a position on the opposite side from the rookies. Proffer. What lessons can we derive from coaches that treat the rookies with grave skepticism like Woodson who calls Shumpert "Rook" and all the players that haze the rooks endlessly to prevent them from interfering with the natural order of things.

Jeff Watson adds: 

I have a rookie close to me and he tends to over-think things and makes grandiose predictions. I keep sending him back to the drawing board because he's not scientific and usually wrong. I love when he says if A is happening then B must happen down the road…..but then again it's not his capital at risk. Rookies, if they are lucky, are taught rational thinking, but sadly aren't taught that the world and the markets are very irrational. I think in the future that every assistant I hire in the future will list "Phone Clerk for a bookie" on his resume.

Richard Owen writes:

I found this article very applicable. 


PLOS Medicine: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False 


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3 Comments so far

  1. Andre Wallin on March 7, 2013 2:59 pm

    rookies should plug data into matlab or matplotlib and visualize statistics. also a rookie needs to experience sufficient pain to kill his ‘grandiose’ feelings just like he needs a dream girl to break his heart when he’s 20.

  2. Henry Carstens on March 7, 2013 6:59 pm

    If we’re looking for experience and maturity from rookies, perhaps we are looking for the wrong qualities. Better to look to them for fresh eyes, clever insights, wonder and a tide of ideas to push us out of our comfort zones and toward new highs…

    –h

  3. Anonymous on March 8, 2013 12:32 pm

    There may be a problem with the findings in this paper. If the results of the published article on ‘why most published research findings are false’ are actually true then they have disrpoven their own findings!

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