Feb

27

A Man, from Victor Niederhoffer

February 27, 2013 |

 A man with an IQ of 185 recently started overwhelming me with his range forecasts. "The range today should be x to y." I told him these were worthless forecasts. But he doesn't understand. Today he came up with a nice touch. "It's pure trouble if the Dow goes below 13 870."  When the Dow did so, he sends me a self congratulatory note that I didn't read as I don't like to lose my temper during market or other times, (and I rarely do, although every day is a struggle for me, and as mentioned I have never had a satisfactory day, especially when a flexion is going bankrupt, and there is insider trading overnight). But, there is something so delphic, so self fulfilling about such forecasts. Of course it's pure trouble if the market goes below any number and by the time it does, depending on how long you wait, the chances of it being pure trouble below any day that it purely troubled to go below is terrible to contemplate. I had a dream that the pure trouble person was watching one of my kids play soccer, (he was on the Olympic Water Polo team of one country or another ((as many people who solicit ones business claim to be ), and I tried to explain that such forecasts are part of a genera that have to be true, by randomness, and my kid frowned and then headed the ball.


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