Feb

18

Weekly, one looks at Israel's market for benchmarks and guidance as they read our mail and are so much more scholarly than we. And to do it, I often scroll through 100 returns for every world market. In looking at these, one notes that about 90 of the markets are performing significantly worse year to date than the US. Canada and Europe are up 2% on the year to unchanged versus our up 6% are typical. Only Japan is up 10% and a few Arab countries are in our ball park. In conjunction with the run 20 percentage point increase in stocks relative to bonds, and the duration of 75 days since bonds set a big max, and the dissipation of wealth in the long precious metals, and the incredible run of max after max in US stocks, and the little woman's (who is very sagacious and always gives me good advice about the market) waving of the sceptre each morning over the head "but dear, yes. You're making, but what happens when it goes down 100 points 5 days in a row. Don't give it all back", one is somewhat less exuberant than one would be without all these Cassandra like warnings. If all my kids start calling me saying that they notice they have a few bucks in money markets receiving 0% interest, and should they invest in stocks, like they did at the height of 6000 nasdaq in 2000, then I'll know it's time to join Maturin in leaning over the boat and noting the behavior of the flying fish. Hopefully, I will take my shoes off if I fall in the water.

Rocky Humbert writes: 

Well put. Alas, the wife of the man who is long S&P calls because he sees little if any value in stocks (or bonds either for that matter, but accepts that the market is always right and he doesn't fight the fed or fight his wife) is already asking, "after the market goes down 100 points 5 days in a row, is that time to sell or time to buy?" The trendfollower replies, "depends on your timeframe."


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3 Comments so far

  1. Weekly, One Looks at Israel’s Market | Fifth Estate on February 18, 2013 1:43 pm

    […] See full story on dailyspeculations.com […]

  2. douglas roberts dimick on February 19, 2013 4:09 pm

    Cycle/fractal = timeframe?

    I understand that V has argued against fractal correlations for demarcating divergence/convergence based positioning.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_or_cut_bait

    When my father taught me how to cast on a small river behind our farm, the wrist determined its length relative to the time that the line laid atop the water.

    Markets move as waters may be distinguished… Is the boat adrift in a lake, pond, or river?

    One takes his shoe’s off at the door — Is it right?

    dr

  3. douglas roberts dimick on February 19, 2013 4:35 pm

    Ps…
    “Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets.”
    Old French Proverb

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