Jan
31
A Humble Conversation, by Victor Niederhoffer
January 31, 2007 |
Speaker 1: How is the market treating you?
Speaker 2: Not as badly as usual, but we've still got a long way to recover.
Speaker 1: No, really. I'm hoping things are good with you and you are giving them the usual drubbing.
Speaker 2: The market's been drubbing me much too much lately.
Speaker 1: That's not easy to believe. We are surviving, but we need much improvement.
Speaker 2: That's much more than I could say for most of last year.
Speaker 1: But time favors the optimist.
Speaker 2: It's path dependent regrettably.
Speaker 1: But the path is a long one.
Speaker 2: I wish it didn't have all those pitfalls.
Speaker 1: You have always been very resilient after a fall.
Speaker 2: The problem is that I can't let it happen more than once. They only forgive you once and I am always on the brink. If you only knew what I have gone through.
Speaker 1: I heard you're at the top again.
Speaker 2: I wish that were true. We're so attenuated that any figures like that
would be meaningless.
Speaker 1: I just want to say that Hakeem and I are very grateful to you for all you taught us while we were at your shop.
Speaker 2: You're the one that can teach me. I would much rather make it the way your shop does, following the big waves, and knowing that just one profit will cover all the short term.
Speaker 1: It hasn't been clear sailing for us either.
Speaker 2: The only one that can grind is the house. Regrettably, I try to grind against the house.
Speaker 1: Well look, I was hoping that things were going well and that you weren't concerned about all the months that have gone by without a decline.
Speaker 2: I am very concerned. At my age, I can't afford to give back the wherewithal for my seven tuitions. There hasn't been a decline of more than 2% for the longest period in history.
Speaker 1: We would be happy to buy you dinner and just catch up.
Speaker 2: I'd like that very much as soon as things quiet down and the risk is a bit lower.
Comments
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The Japanese have a saying, “the eagle hides its talons”. Your reference to the word “humble” suggests that you are not humble. Then again, calculated humbleness is not humble either so we either emanate humbleness or we don’t.
No amount of intellectual ramblings are going to surpass the true measure of a trader/speculator’s prowess which is the amount of money that can be made over a period of time. Nevertheless, stating the obvious, your current fund’s return has suggested that you have, over the life of the fund, superior capabilites in trading/speculation so it speaks for itself. Can we assume that the popularity of the site is a function of this score? If your fund looses money consecutively over a number of years in future, will you still maintain this site? Will the number of participants remain? My opinion is that whether or not this site will be maintained under extreme adversities is the true test.
By the way, do all these highly capable bloggers with academic knowledge of stats, physics, etc make money? Is there a positive correlation between academic achievement and trading prowess?
Your web site is thoroughly enjoyable for even someone like myself who hasn’t got a clue as to what everyone is talking about.
PS How are you able to read so many books that you have recommended? Are you a left brainer or do you employ the Korean right brain method of speed reading?