Jan

15

What a field day for robots, market makers, and petty traders. The last 7 days, it was impossible to make a profit by going for a few points from the open. Indeed, the average open to close move has to be about the lowest in years. The market makers love this of course because they can bid a little below and sell a little above and always make a profit. And anyone who tries to sell from fear or buy from greed has to lose by the end of the day. Also, day traders who want to eke out a reasonable profit. It reminds one of the change in speciation when all the nitches in a environment are filled. Nothing will change and the rate of change will be gradual until a major change in the environment is filled. The grains seem to be outside of their nitch as they are unstable. And the nikkei continues to rise relentlessly after 100 years of decline. As does the dollar appear to be unstable in a declining state also. But all things considered it shows the fallacy of the punctilliated equilibrium, egalitarian communitarianism of the Goulds and their fellow travelers by giving an example of how gradualism can continue for ages without a change in the environment and nitches filled. I realize that the only thing I've left out is flexionism and the idea that has the world in its grip. It's that also, but I can't put my finger on it now as the market might have a big move, while I figure it out.


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  1. Craig Bowles on January 16, 2013 7:47 am

    When you look at the bigger picture, the economic setup changed in the first half of 2011. The lagging economic index began to outpace the economy. Since then, the dollar has been the only thing in advance. S&P +100 to -300. Gold flat. Oil flat. We had a run in the grains when wheat hit the 4.4yr cycle high right on schedule but that’s over.

    The main thing that’s changed since is the economic indexes became fully inverted in September 2011. When you look at 2-yr grates, the lagging index is even outpacing the coincident. This is unusual and doesn’t normally last long but 2007 managed to last longer than the others. Eventually, the economy will have to be allowed to correct this situation.

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