Jan

11

An Astronomer, from Kim Zussman

January 11, 2013 |

An astronomer was profiled in the media, ca ~2000. Not for his science, but for the fact that he held onto a position in MSFT stock for ~10X (100X, etc).

He didn't sell after 20% gain. Or 50%. Or 100%. He just irrationally (per nascent behavioral finance) held. Intuition, like in Carl Sagan's "Contact", rather than explicit knowledge of the company's business prospects, valuation, or moving average. Dumb stubborn luck.

MSFT hasn't done much since then, so whether he's still holding or sold out, no matter (because it wasn't AMD).

The astronomer is a standard-bearer for those in the empirical vacuum tempted to sell after a double, or down on their luck and doubling down.


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2 Comments so far

  1. I Guess on January 11, 2013 2:25 pm

    Intuition, like in Carl Sagan’s “Contact”, rather than explicit knowledge of the company’s business prospects, valuation, or moving average. Dumb stubborn luck.

    What does that mean? First off, this astronomer probably didn’t spend much time developing his intuition for trading. I guess one could say that a person could have more conviction in their idea given the things you said here. But black swans happen. A stop loss is better than all the brains in the world.

  2. Astro the Family Dog on January 14, 2013 9:50 am

    One of the best all time movies I think, of course I am well off the point of the post here.

    But, to suggest the scene near the ending in which the worm hole trip. Leads to a series of ‘Oh God’ Oh God’ Oh GoD’!!!

    …LOL…they all go there when in trouble..:)

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