Jan

29

With all the movement of the EURO/USD getting bashed about by scheduled events, round numbers are frequent resting points. Right now we are at 1.29. Coincidently it is 1:29 A.M. Monday New York time. The European traders will be waking up soon and they have their own brand of fake out maneuvers, usually beginning around 2:30 EST., and within a couple of hours, their true intentions become known.

There are lull times in-between global market opens and announcements. During these times, there is drift. It can be scary as the drift moves in-between the round numbers, but gravity is often predictable. The scary part is when the drift becomes significant and time elapses into a fundamental zone.

For instance, a drift approaching 1.2925 could mean that we have a new resting point and our gravity to 1.29 is no longer as likely. Anything under 12 pips is not as significant. However, I hate going short at 12 above my root note and then have time bring me into a fundamental zone before the gravity occurs, so I have to look at the speed of the drift. Slow drift is the hardest to read. Rapid drift can give insights. Change ups in drift speed call for sophisticated timing. I find that it's better to wait a couple beats for a rhythm to be established. However, that rhythm can be hard to count on for any period of time, which brings me to the psychological fake out mode. When this occurs, it is best not to be caught in the switches and stick to my original assumptions.

My cousin just gave me his S-PLUS CD. I want to develop calculations for this drift speed as it is relative to the resting points at exactly this time of day. I am a Jr. programmer and am just now learning to count. I would be grateful for any ideas along these lines. It is now 2:11 and no drift at all, so there is no reason for me to open a position until they wake up across the pond. I am going to start by collecting data for an excel spread sheet with columns for one minute time and euro price. Oh wait, 1.2909 at 2:34. Too close to market open to risk it, my drift window has closed.


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