Nov

6

 I am currently reading Nate Silver's book The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't.

I really enjoyed the piece on weather forecasting by the government and how computers and humans play. Apparently weather.gov meteorologists take very detailed notes on their individual performance over the computer to make sure they are "adding value." In the process, they have significantly improved their own weather predictions. It also touches upon traversing the massive amount of data humans have access to and how people are not obsolete…yet,

I uploaded the pages from the book here (pages 120-122).

Seems like there are many links to trading here.

The forecasting done in weather is incredibly complex and it's quite amazing the leaps that they've taken. The fact that they could give a small radius of where Sandy would land when it combined with other storms and fronts was absolutely amazing. Weather forecasters could evacuate areas and save lives with time to do so. Weather is incredibly difficult and computationally expensive to simulate and predict. So for them being able to do that….just wow.

And on another note, I do not think forecasters misled the public at all on Sandy. News here (lower Manhattan) was very concerned about the upcoming storm and they encouraged everybody to evacuate. They had constant feeds and were constantly changing their forecasts based on new data coming in, which I hear is more prudent than what many novice traders do.


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