Oct
23
The Punishment for Failing to Predict, from Pitt T. Maner III
October 23, 2012 |
Italian Scientists Convicted of Manslaughter for failing to predict an earthquake:
"Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila. A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter. Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defense maintained there was no way to predict major quakes."
and
"Among those convicted were some of Italy's most prominent and internationally respected seismologists and geological experts."
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Practitioners of Chaos Theory beware. After a Black Swan event happens, it is easy to retrospectively find a method that shows the a-priori estimates were gross understatements.
The trick is to use those methods before the event.