Oct

10

If post traumatic stress is so common to those who have seen their comrades killed (it used to be called battle fatigue in sociology courses), then it must exist in the market, as it represents a very prevalent human condition that should manifest itself in measurable areas rather than self pitying ones related to disability insurance et al.

One is reminded of what all of us who survived the Oct 19th, 1987 crash and many others engendered by people like the inside traders among the French banks et al, and the New Jersey Governor who didn't know that they were using customer funds. All such activities led to 4 % or more daily declines and of course 25% for the Baker crash of 87.

In any case I quantified a daily PTS event as a 3 % move up from the low of a day when the low was 3% or more below yesterday's close. I find reasonable evidence of suicidal tendencies in the market the next day to the extent of about -2/3 % with a 1/3 chance of it not happening.


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4 Comments so far

  1. Ed on October 9, 2012 10:59 am

    Interesting study thanks for sharing

  2. astro the family dog on October 10, 2012 3:20 am

    I recall Soros/Rogers last ditch in the last 15 minutes of that 87 crash, of course now a great buying area.

    If you had experience PTS, then you have awaken almost every evening, sometimes, seeing ‘red in slow motion’, and a cold sweat you cannot control because the adrenal gland has ‘again’ done its thing to you.

    Awaking, you more than likely even after sleeping for so long, are ‘exhausted beyond the normal’ because the now over sized gland had move to a point in which it releases its build up and the release has again spent your body.

    Though we talk of investing and trading as some type of battle field, it is far from it.

    The life and death feeling at 1st felt in combat slowing diminishes over time, and everyday occurrences of death, destruction, and pain, is generally a mere splinter on the trigger finger.

    All things are surly relevant and as one human does so pain the same as another… it is best just to note,,,,

    …the other loses something that can be made and even lost again, and made again…etc…

    but in warfare noting when a leg or arm is gone by and on the battle field, the losing of life seems somehow less important…and all of these cannot be ‘made again’.

    Just to note of course.

    ——–

  3. John on October 10, 2012 10:10 pm

    Vic, best to use a platform when you go off the deep end. Ditm calls on the indexs or is it indexes
    are the best rx for PST drops.

  4. G dhananjhay on October 11, 2012 1:17 am

    As a short term trader in Indian stock markets, I have witnesses several instances of post traumatic stress. Friends being killed literally by the losses in trading, made me bitter. Several instances of vig damaging the traders accounts and morale made me averse to being a party to the demise of many gamblers.

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