Sep
24
The Wish for a Strong Father Figure, from Victor Niederhoffer
September 24, 2012 |
The wish for a strong father figure seems to be eternal in markets. Sometimes it was The Fake Doc, other times The Scholarly Chair, or a president or chairman. Like the rookie who starts the season off with a 400 batting average, you have to hand it to Draghi. He seems to have captured the fatherly longings. Whenever the market goes down, the cry of "Where's Draghi" can almost be heard across the lands.
Stefan Jovanovich adds:
It helps the rookie father figure if everyone agrees not to throw any curve balls:
"Despite the surge in federal borrowing in recent years, net interest outlays are projected to hold steady at 1.4 percent of GDP through 2015, primarily because interest rates are expected to remain near historic lows for the next few years. Interest rates are anticipated to rise noticeably thereafter, causing net interest outlays to increase to 2.3 percent of GDP by 2020".
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Do bubbles predict the future? Bubbles are based on a realistic idea and while it may not help in the markets it may help in real life. For example, 1929 the idea of America’s future growth, tech bubble indicating the possibilities of the Internet, and the real estate bubble signaling it may be the best investment for the next generation.
Here is an interesting jumping off point for further discussion. Why do we, as adults, have the need for a father figure?
Is the attitude and involvement of our own biological fathers a key determinant, or is it deeper than this?
The “big government” so despised by productive, responsible, free-thinking citizens exists almost solely due to the need of our fellow countrymen for a father figure.
Do women feel a stronger need for a paternal influence than men? If they cannot get this from a strong independent husband, are they more likely to favor big government? Is there a link between universal suffrage and the rise of the nanny state?
Discussions such as we could have about this subject will tell us about ourselves, our community, and our fellow man - what else is the market? Perhaps the discussions here which are ostensibly not related to trading provide the best trading lessons of all.
So what does a “father figure” represent? In the case of welfare moms (the state) and speculators (Draghi) could it be a deep yearning to be released from personal responsibility and consequences? Those who are mentally ill and elect voluntary hospitalization are also those who have failed to manage the free will and choice we are each born with. Is this a synbolic return to childhood? Why are we seeing this more and more frequently in the apparently adult population?