Jan

25

It is hard for me to believe that on a day like today in Japan where the Nikkei opens up 1% and then closes the morning session down a bit on the day that it somehow isn't a pilot fish for what's going to happen elsewhere, but the tests that I have made on this in my day do not bear me out.

It is good to keep a record of the prices that you buy and sell various markets and individual stocks at and when you're a recurring buyer or seller, it is good never to buy at a price higher than your previous buy or sell at a price lower than your previous sell. Of course this must be tested.

Many of the great music melodies like the ode to joy which I am playing on my new bass; because the cello was too difficult for me due to my tennis grip, have very few intervals on average between the consecutive notes. At a dinner with Uncle Roy, I challenged him to come up with the market lesson from that and he said that rises that come with few jumps are more persistent then those that are jumpy. This of course must be tested.

The VIX at 9.89 appears to be at least a 26 year low. How conditions have changed from the fearful days of last spring when Chair Bernanke sent his Governors out to counter the Rumpole like romantic aftermath (which now has cropped up again at Citi and leads one to think this could be a good theme for an opera )? Many ask me if based on their misinterpretation of Prac Spec I am still waiting for it to go above 0.30 to become bullish again, and I was in a similar situation in the 1960's when I waited for AMEX volume to go above 30% of NYSE volume to become bullish. 

As an afterthought, why is it that whenever the sun comes out on an otherwise miserable day, and weather really improves, that the market improves also. I like to play tennis outdoors on soft courts during the trading day (still in mid January, even with the snow) and one of my colleagues will often shout to me from the trading room "stay out there, the market loves it while you're out."


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