Sep

14

This Winter, from David Lilienfeld

September 14, 2012 |

There's an interesting article in Nature about the coming winter–with a prediction for a worse than usual one. It seems to me this is a test of the climatologists' ability to do any long-term predicting–and if they are off on this one, I have to wonder what happens to the global-warming deniers (probably "I told you so").

All of which leads me to ask the commodities traders on this list: is natural gas going to put in a bottom (even if seasonal) on news like this, or is there still so much supply in the US (stored and otherwise) that even with a bad winter, natural gas will remain cheap for a long time to come?

Jeff Watson writes: 

Back in the pit days, if it looked like the contract was making a bottom, I'd sell 5,000 bushels a quarter cent below the bid (had to time it just right) to see if there was anything down there. The thing was by doing this, it was very low risk, got me a lot of information, and would cost me a max of $25, but I was usually able to scratch the trade more often than not. The grain market will tell an inside player (one who's always making a market), very clearly, when it's a bottom. Stocks and bonds, I don't know that much about.


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3 Comments so far

  1. Ron Armany on September 14, 2012 1:34 pm

    Predicting the future is as good as studying the past.
    GAS prices have not reached bottom yet.

  2. astro the family dog on September 15, 2012 9:08 am

    Ron Armany very interesting post from you, not many here I have notice come out and state a fact.

    How much lower do you think NG prices will go? always in it for the money.

    Thanks.

  3. Rich on September 15, 2012 10:23 am

    “I have to wonder what happens to the global-warming deniers”

    David,
    Unfortunately the “denier” label is too commonplace in the general climate lexicon. It is a vulgar and decidedly uncivil descriptor; one that I’m sure you do not intend.

    May I suggest “sceptic” as a more amicable alternative.

    Thanks.

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