Jul

13

So, corn and wheat are going up, just about all other commodities, gold included, is headed down. Copper, too? Jury's out. Stocks don't look so hot–valuations are high and guidance is turning pretty crappy. Oh, and there's an election in the offing. So, with the 10 yr Treasury south of 2% (and maybe setting another low in the next several days), where does one put one's money–in Europe?(!?) In…

Tim Melvin writes: 

Every time I think if passing on the mess that is Europe I think if John Templeton's advice to invest at the point of maximum pessimism.

Of course all of us have found a supposed max to be a min to our dismay.

I have a baby toe in Europe at this point.

Andre Clapp writes: 

My point exactly… Pessimism on Europe, if not at a maximum, is certainly very high. Significant career risk for professionals. Everyone knows you'd have to be an idiot to invest in Europe. Reminds me of the US market during March of '03 and '09. Buffett out today saying Euro is "doomed to failure" with one small caveat. (Who is more front page than the Oracle?) Reminds me of the Economist issue "Drowning in Oil", when oil was $12 a barrel. They felt that oil should trade at $5 a barrel, with one small caveat, "in the absence of political considerations"… Hmmm, seems like a pretty big caveat to me! Needless to say, oil (Brent) trading at triple digit levels only a decade later, even in a weak global economy. The lesson to me: Mind the caveat!

Lastly, The Oracle may have his own personal reasons for "encouraging" the Europeans. He is not above that, IMO. People stating the consensus opinion often leave this kind of trap-door caveat behind. My guess is that the sun will still rise, and Europe will still be here, 10 years from now.


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