Jun

30

 To what extent did the 20% rise in the grains in the two weeks preceding the beginning of this week, presage the upward move of 50 points this week in S&P? How to quantify?

Jeff Watson writes: 

Grains were oversold a couple of weeks ago because many players thought Greece would leave the Euro, and China's economy might crash.

Gary Rogan writes: 

It seems rather unlikely that China crashing would affect its demand for grains much. Perhaps some substitution from animal feed to human consumption. I had read in the past that its demand for basic foodstuffs is pretty inelastic, and in fact this demand becoming such is what really led to the upheavals in the Arab world as there was a huge new inelastic customer entering the market thus leaving the low-end elastic customers in the dust ready for partial starvation. It also seems strange that Greece's fate would have any appreciable demand on grain demand. Oil maybe, but not grain.


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