May

25

 At the risk of covering my face with egg, I need to go on the record:

First the first time in years, I am not long gold.  I admit that I feel very naked — like I just got out of the shower and can't find my towel.

And I have no clue what gold will do next. $100 either way is a rounding error.

And I might trade around a tiny bit (until I find my towel.)

But my multi-year structural trade is over. And it won't be re-entered anytime soon.

I've been in this trade for years, and I promised you that I'd tell you when I exited. And I did. I didn't buy the lows. I didn't sell the highs. But it sure beat a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

If I just correctly called the end of the mega gold bull market, please remember my brilliance. And if gold rips toward 2000++, please remember my stupidity.

Anatoly Veltman hints at future revelations:

Well I have a very interesting pattern that I anticipate in Gold this summer. I'll try to share it as soon as I have time to present it succinct manner.  

But game d'jour is EUR, which touched 1.2500 in the last hour - and bounced high! (knock-out option defense anyone?) I anticipate some shenanigans around this long weekend. Brings to memory EUR's first ever crawl up toward 1.5000 -just to punch thru with a huge gap smack between the NY banking close and Asia's open!!
 


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6 Comments so far

  1. david ricardo on May 27, 2012 2:13 pm

    1) It would be fair if you also state a timeframe (e.g. if gold rips toward 2000 ++ by 2015)
    2) Exiting a profitable trade and making a bad call on the future price of gold doesn’t necessarily make you STUPID.
    Ceteris Paribus
    David Ricardo

  2. Andre Wallin on May 28, 2012 10:32 am

    Every 20something is educated into a niche with little understanding outside his/her focus. This is a development of the 20th century leaving everyone unfulfilled on every level. For example, a business person ought to know philosophy, psychology, anatomy, biology at least at a basic level. I doubt most business people have even a basic understanding of any of these fields. It is truly disturbing. A crime a against humanity. I am going to go pick up general anatomy text book…

  3. Bill Brauer on May 29, 2012 10:52 am

    I give up on trying to predict the gold market. Can anyone explain why gold prices decline as priced by the Euro?

  4. Murali on May 29, 2012 10:52 am

    Andre,

    Why would a businessman need to know philosophy biology and anatomy? I can understand the need to know psychology, but why the other three?

    best wishes

  5. marty mackman on May 30, 2012 12:13 am

    I could not tell you long term trades. /GC down to 1528 short term is pretty obvious though. Markets always retest extremes, if left untested.

  6. Craig on June 1, 2012 6:10 pm

    The last two years saw stocks strengthen relative to gold in Q1. We did it again this year but ended similarly. Seasonality is interesting as it’s been pretty bearish on everything into June and then rallies. Gold seasonality suggested at 1546 low on June 20th but we already tested the 1530 area a couple of times. Looks like people have taken advantage of it. Seasonality sees the 1790s in late August. It’s bullish for the grains, also. Soybeans and wheat +$2 and corn back over $7/bu. Stock have bumpy seasonality. 1277 was expected by 6/12 but we’re there now. It jumps up to 1372 by 7/11 and then tumbles to 1217 by 8/8. Dollar/yen is steady downside to 74.20 by late summer. Seasonality is helpful for timing and you don’t really want to take on new positions when it’s going against you.

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