Jan
10
Query of the Day, from Victor Niederhoffer
January 10, 2012 |
With all the charlatans hawking the January barometer, randomly stating that the first month is predictive of the last last 11, how come we have never heard of a first day barometer, or a first week barometer? I believe Galton would have written on this in Natural Faculty.
Update: Indeed there is a first week barometer and it's much less consistent with randomness than the first month barometer, and of course it's opposite.
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Mercurial Suffrage or Barometric Sophistry?
Mercury, as a messenger of the gods, is also the god of commerce, thievery, eloquence, and science.
My Today in History gadget reminds us that, on this day in 1915, women’s suffrage was voted down by US House of Representatives. Charlatans of the market and rascals in the legislature share a common denominator: time.
The chemistry is like-kind, whereby the compound reflects surfaces of mirrors. The randomness of economic and political predictions is only quantified by the duration that those reflections — be it of self, firm, or party — demonstrate a relative correlation to successive outcomes within a given population or universe from which measurements are proffered. For example, at…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women’s_suffrage
… see the listing of China at the Table of international women’s suffrage. It records that 1947 was “the first date women were allowed to participate (by voting) in elections.”
Wait a minute… Today, the general (1.4 billion) population to include women do not have that right any more than men do — unless you are of the 80 million members of the Communist Party.
How come Wiki does not provide a table about current conditions of women’s suffrage?
Randomness is to be found in commerce as it is in science; accordingly, commonality is presumed in thievery as it is with eloquence.
How to weather the variances thereof is perhaps more a matter of individual rather than collective speculation.
dr