Dec

13

 Hurricane predictors admit they can't predict hurricanes :

Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn't work. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach.

But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next. Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.

Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky: 'We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.'"

Yet…they just released their latest prediction here, in which they write:

"t this extended range of lead time, we're better off kind of examining four different scenarios, and then trying to assign a probability to the likelihood that each of those would occur," says Klotzbach….

Or perhaps, they should consider becoming market strategists for a Wall Street Brokerage Firm, where their track record might be forgiven.

Gary Rogan adds:

Rush tied the ability to predict hurricanes and to predict global warming and its effects together in his show today. This persistent belief in man-made global warming and its deleterious effects continuous to fascinate me as an atypical "delusion and madness of crowds". Many people who had ardently supported the theory in the past now simply hate the topic, it seems boring to them. Yet they continue to persist in their beliefs that nothing much has happened to disprove the "consensus of science". Most delusions of this type peak and then die a horrible death, but this one is stuck in some sort of purgatory. Whenever this topic comes up, I invariably say that it's a hoax, as I have said for years, and just like a few years ago the reaction is usually disbelief that I can hold this opinion while so many countries are supposedly on board, but the reaction is much less energetic than it used to be.

Luckily Canada has just "irresponsibly" and "recklessly" withdawn from Kyoto .

 


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