Crony Capitalism, from Jim Sogi

November 30, 2011 |

 "How Paulson Gave Hedge Funds Advance Word"

Paulson tips hedgies over lunch in '08.

Jim Lackey writes:

Looks like it just happened again. Last week an EU bank was in trouble… Monday they gap it to the moon on the relief nothing went under…and today the news.

All of this mumbo reminds me of Rocky's experiment on unemployment Fridays. Even if you know the number or have the inside scoop, do you have the whole story and or can you predict the markets move, since who else already knows?

My day trader's guess is too few knew about today's news… or we wouldn't have gone 10 over open prices. I used to let these things bother me. Now I just say, now you know…. Now you know why I gravitated to the counters. Win, lose, or draw, do your best.





Speak your mind

13 Comments so far

  1. cubtrader on November 30, 2011 2:09 pm

    would you please explain for the white trash (me) that lurk on this site what….. gravitated to the counters…..means?

  2. Matthew on November 30, 2011 6:10 pm

    A smoke screen, perhaps?


    “Last time we looked Goldman, Paulson and the others didn’t have that power. We know who has it, though, or we think we do. Anything else is just a distraction. (And, yes, Bloomberg probably doesn’t have REAL power either, but we figure in this case, he’s carrying the “right water,” for now anyway.)

    The idea is to make people so mad that will use the system AS IT IS to attack the “corruption” that is being reported (on purpose) to make them angry. This sort of reporting is supposed to be POLARIZING, and it is. People are supposed to fall in line behind the very aspects of Money Power they’ve spent years criticizing!”

  3. Max Smart on November 30, 2011 10:50 pm

    It is interesting to see how inside information isn’t always enough. Our friend Mr. Corzine was certainly in the know, but some minor errors in timing and hubris seemed to unravel things a bit.

  4. Mike on December 1, 2011 1:00 am

    Many of the high flyers of 06,07 are still below their high watermarks, funds closed.

    The tip didnt go far.

    A guy in a tent is dancing right now.

  5. Andre Wallin on December 1, 2011 1:19 pm

    counting past patterns ie consecutive down days to determine what is likely to happen next. what are the odds of taking a long position based on historical data. just a warning, one significantly underestimates how weak one is vs. the strong in the beginning. in terms of capital, speed of execution, cost structure for commissions, experience, and patience of waiting for a trade and more so while one is in a trade. i think in the beginning it is best to be a day trader in order to gain hours of practice, but as more experience is gained, it is best to move away from that. it is almost impossible to make money day trading consistently beyond a month. just my opinion.

  6. Curmudgeon 8903 on December 1, 2011 4:19 pm


    in card playing the counters are those who keep track of cards to improve their odds

    in trading the counters are those who eschew inside information, the opinion of gurus, the interpretation of charts, the feel of the market, etc. in favor of an approach more similar to that of card players: in such and such situation what are the probabilities of various cards being drawn from the deck

  7. Andre Wallin on December 1, 2011 8:13 pm

    has anyone here been affected by mf global? I have and do you think this has broader implications?

  8. cubtrader on December 2, 2011 1:09 pm

    Ah…….that’s what I was thinking. It’s actually a literal term. Then I’ve done my fair share of counting, but at the Roulette wheel. I guess counting fails when there is an infinite set of observations (looking forward). Thanks guys.

  9. jeff Watson on December 2, 2011 1:51 pm

    @Cubtrader, counting fails at roulette because each play has a -eV, the house pays out with short odds, and the ball has no memory. In the markets, the winners are paid at true odds less the vig, like poker there is not necessarily a -eV, and the market does have a memory. One can win grinding away at the markets but I’ve never seen a person grind away at roulette and win unless he was the house.

  10. cubtrader on December 2, 2011 4:10 pm

    @Watson….I think. All investments are less than EV. I was just making a joke about casino games. Of course they’re not ev, at all but I think counting has serious flaws as its limited observations.

  11. jeff Watson on December 2, 2011 5:06 pm

    @Cubtrader, All investments are less than eV? Please explain. And all methods(not just counting) of analyzing the markets have serious limitations and flaws….otherwise a person with a method without those flaws and limitations would own all the money in the world in very short order. Still, counting has some science behind it, while some of those other fashionable, subjective methods are equivalent to reading tea leaves or looking at chicken bones.

  12. Andre Wallin on December 2, 2011 8:17 pm

    start with 10k, blow it. scale up and blow 2/3 of 100k then make a living with 200,000. .0025% return per day you can grind, but you need at least 3,000 hours of experience to achieve. so you need to blow 100k plus pay for your living expenses and care a lot about losing the 100k, so you can’t be a spoiled brat that doesn’t care. so, essentially, you need to blow 150-200k and then have 200k left over to trade to make a living from. that is my journey, but I’m sure there’s others who have a more natural gift that maybe avoided this. you should expect at least 1 margin call as well while you add to a position and hold overnight LOL.

  13. Andre Wallin on December 2, 2011 9:49 pm

    I meant .25% per day or .0025 on the calculator.


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