Nov

29

Hi everyone, this is my first post. Very honored to be here. Sorry I haven't really introduced myself yet. I will do so shortly afterwards.

Regarding Goldman's recommendation, I think that it could be a very late call.

In this year, the HengSeng index started at about 24,000 and moved downward to the current level of about 18,000, a drop of 25%. That is also a drop of 45% from the 2007 high of 32,000 and a rise of 68% from the 2008 low of 10,700. Comparatively, the S&P started the year at 1270 and is now at 1200 (a 5% drop). The drop from the 2007 high of 1580 is about 24%, and the rise from the 2009 low of 670 is 79%.

I know that it is not very useful simply comparing the points in history, but what I am trying to say is that for about 4 years the market has been reflecting the bearish situations of China's economy. I am not sure whether there is anything really new at this point.

While I agree that the market could see some further leg of the fall, I am more looking at a somewhat more upside move starting in the next few months. As to what could be the trigger to the upside move, I am not sure now but feel it will manifest in the near future.

Best,

Leo Jia

P.S. I currently have no position (long or short) in either Hong Kong or mainland Chinese stock markets.


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