Nov

27

 I believe we've had enough of the grist for the chair and that we return from commodities. We have learned from the exchange. The market is down 7 days in a row. Where's it going? I note only 3 other occasions in the last 15 years. There is not necessarily light at the end of the tunnel 10 days later based on the past.

Ken Drees writes: 

With the euro news winds moving US equities and the "bad" German bund auction capper for the moment, the inner core begins to feel the fallout and therefore the closer we are to a plan B coming up out of the blue. Every euro bond auction is now going to be bad until something is done. I would say we are close to the rumor stage of rescue and that equities are tilted for a rally. I think the 7% retail spending increase may be enough to get things started if some positive rumors surface for rescue in euroland.

Paolo Pezzutti writes: 

Who should be the rescuer? Unless in Europe somebody questions the excessive welfare state built over the years, nothing can change. People still give for granted "rights" and privileges that cannot be afforded any more. Somebody has to question the size of governments and the perimeter of their interests and actions. Nobody is doing it so far. They are still looking for lenders and trying to find money rising taxes. How can we be optimistic? 


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4 Comments so far

  1. David on November 27, 2011 10:00 pm

    Sorry for the newbie question but I couldn't find the answers on this site. Are you the real Victor Niederhoffer or is it just a persona because I got confused reading the about. If yes, is the Larry Williams on this site real or a persona? Thanks for the effort trying to answer my question.

    [Ed.: this site is run by the real VN and when the real Larry Williams is kind enough to send us a post we publish it under his name, yes].

  2. Craig on November 28, 2011 7:10 pm

    With P/Es around 12 or 13 for this market, it makes you wonder how much of the E is stimulus related. A recession would have the regular business cycle risk plus a kicker if more stimulus isn’t added. Then we’d have to worry about the pension funds. If we don’t have a recession, it’ll be interesting to see where oil prices end up.

  3. michael bonderer on November 29, 2011 11:47 am

    anyone know a bid/ask for defaulted ITT Cuban paper?

  4. ProfitsOn on December 21, 2011 8:29 pm

    Stocks are in a bear market.

    Since 1900, the DJI topped 3 times (1929/1965/2000). The following periods of consolidation (bear?) continued for 13/17 years top to bottom (1906/1921-1929/1942-1965/1982).

    The DJI topped/bottomed roughly every 4/5 years within these lateral movements.

    Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

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