Nov

25

 We've had 6 down days in a row taking us down 100 points with every variety of way to do it. 2 up opens, 2 big down opens, small declines, big declines. The kids book Caps For Sale comes to mind. Every kind.

Paolo Pezzutti adds: 

Maybe this down streak of 6 anticipated lower sales is for Black Friday. Or simply, the market is schizophrenic, printing huge up and down swings driven by algos. My view is that with Europe already in a recession and the US with very few weapons left (practical and political), hoping to provide additional stimulus to the economy, even Apple will sell far fewer iPads and iPhones.

Of course, as far as weapons are concerned, we need to closely follow the Iran and Syria crisis. It could provide new elements of instability and deception from other issues. In this environment during sell-offs I am always tempted to buy lower opens… 


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3 Comments so far

  1. duncan on November 25, 2011 8:52 am

    And as we play simon says I can only guess at what unintentional action (strong sentiment in Malta maybe) will cause all the caps to come back to their rightful owners

  2. Andre Wallin on November 25, 2011 10:24 am

    the consolidation pattern on day bar chart for sp500 from late feb early march 2011 is identical in both action and price and resulting sell off. there were intraday similarities as well with which a speculator was able to copy moves during the break out of the pattern. but as of friday last week similarities have fallen apart and no longer provides predictive value. i think a great deal in a speculators success lies in identifying what past information is most important and more importantly when that information has been identified by the many and is obsolete and thus doing the opposite.

  3. Tom on November 27, 2011 2:55 pm

    Does anyone keep comprehensive price and time datasets for their market or markets? Dr Niederhoffer frequently refers to statistical analysis of markets as part of scientific enquiry into price development. How many members of this list have the facilities to call up, for example, when we last had a sequence of negative closes numbering six days?

    Does the occurrence of six negative days have any predictive value for the seventh day?

    I can run a query in my market database which spits out the following for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, five or more consecutive down days, from March 2007 - September 2011:

    9,10,13,14,15 August 2007
    -349,-61,-4,-215,-170 points -total decline 799 in 5d

    15,16,17,18,19 October 2007
    -105,-88,-22,-3,-384 points -total decline 602 in 5d

    15,16,17,18,21 January 2008
    -276,-46,-298,-60,-547 points -total decline 1227 in 5d

    1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10 October 2008
    -20,-351,-146,-285,-589,-218,-556,-147 points -total decline 2312 in 8d

    17,18,19,22,23 December 2008
    -117,-209,-49,-68,-84 points -total decline 527 in 5d

    7,8,9,12,13,14 January 2009
    -232,-33,-151,-128,-28,-247 points -total decline 623 in 5d

    25,26,27 February 2,3 March 2009
    -80,-79,-116,-297,-51 points -total decline 561 in 6d

    28,29,30 June 1,2,5 July 2010
    -32,-297,-99,-42,-48,-43 points -total decline 384 in 5d

    10,11,12,13,16 August 2010
    -47,-257,-64,-11,-5 points -total decline 526 in 6d

    1,2,3,6,7,8 June 2011
    -287,-46,-94,-60,-20,-19 points -total decline

    22,25,26,27,28,29 July 1,2 August 2011
    -47,-84,-93,-197,-60,-97,-21,-266 points -total decline 865 in 8d

    Does anyone have the capabilities to do various number crunching and analysis on an intraday dataset going back several years for a given market? What about doing the same with spread relationships….

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