Nov

25

 I'm noticing that gasoline is below $3.00 here in OKC but oil is up.

According to Yahoo, the oil ETF has gone up +9.7% since start of Sept. While the USA gasoline (UGA etf) has gone down -9.5%.

With oil as the x and intercept set to zero, the daily slope is 83.5% with an R2 of 78% (UGA only goes to Feb. of 2008) Running a scatter diagram, with oil on the X axis, the recent moves seem to be on bottom right hand edge. It does appear the oil will drop with gasoline rising with greater differences. But this the reverse moves are not usually this large.

Is this due to fear in oil regions, but too much current supply?

This is good new for those driving this Holiday. But is there a Thanksgiving leftover meal here? Ideas?


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2 Comments so far

  1. Sam on November 28, 2011 7:26 pm

    Isn’t this a function of the recent collapse of the Brent/WTI spread? Gasoline was “too high” relative to WTI while the spread was at ahistoric levels.

  2. dvdw on November 30, 2011 11:16 am

    More likely the input variables for refining oil have dropped significantly, refiner profit margins would show this if they were not so busy expanding via capex to capture export demand.

    the oil price needs to fall and once ME actions are clarified they will.2012 should see low 70’s

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