Jan

12

Homeostasis, by Sam Humbert

January 12, 2007 |

A Spec much wiser than I pointed out that Hillary has drifted back down "to support," to 50/50 odds of taking the 2008 Democratic nomination. The thought is that the media want to sell papers, and the ideal level for her to trade is 50, the point of maximum uncertainty, maximum gamma — thereby maximum interest. When she was in the 40s and needed a boost, the media fell in behind her "I'm a centrist" meme. And when she rallied to the 60s, the media unleashed a barrage of Obama puffpieces, causing her to stumble. 

If I were a Tradesports bettor with nothing else to guide me, I'd go with the a priori thesis that she will homeostatically be pulled to the 50 level by the media for another year, and can be "range traded" thusly.   

 


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