Nov

9

 One is always reminded in situations like today where the market is down 3% at the open, of card games I played in 50 years ago, where negotiation about the split was allowed before the call. If one was bluffing or busted, especially in hi lo, one would often smile at the other side, and say something like split 50-50 before the close, expecting a pleasant acceptance from the other side. But instead, the other side never had mercy on you when you were bluffing and would take all your chips and refuse to split with you until the final call, where invariably he'd go both ways against you or the same way as you.

The market has weak longs in its grips. Many brokers and others and hangers on with access to weak hands and liquidations, make their money by front running their weak customers or trading the other side when their customers are forced to liquidate. The idea of mercy or a split is non-existent. This is when they take everything, albeit it has to be a temporary thing here, because the news is ephemeral and tomorrow yet another rabbit will be pulled out.


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7 Comments so far

  1. david on November 9, 2011 3:21 pm

    I’ve been playing a lot of poker lately where many of the games are split games, and one can say drawing four of a kind is that to a ten point move in one direction of the snp so say, which is hard to catch. One thing for sure, the market deck is stacked against us and there are to many jokers in the deck.

  2. Andre Wallin on November 9, 2011 4:57 pm

    things ive learned the hard way:
    -don’t base trades on the past
    -either you’re strictly a day trader or you’re strictly overnight trader
    -vig is your enemy on one end- smallest timeframe
    -rig is your enemy on the other end- largest timeframe
    -one takes a loss when a market inefficiency has worked itself out, not while it’s still inefficient.
    -don’t fade moves after 3:30 est
    -don’t fade unemployment numbers
    -take a loss when your original premise is inefficiency and market become efficient- don’t hope for a gain.
    -always be analyzing the CURRENT bar and where it closes, strong?weak?middle?
    -technical analysis, for the most part, is designed to trap others.

  3. Gary Phillips on November 9, 2011 6:31 pm

    Would it be possible to send Victor a personal e-mail?

  4. vic on November 10, 2011 4:50 am

    yes. Mr. Phillips that would be very nice. you could contact my assistant at 203 8400777. or you could email her: lap at mantrade.com you should be part of our spec group. you seem very creative. vic

  5. Ed on November 10, 2011 9:10 am

    You nailed this one!

  6. Gary Phillips on November 11, 2011 1:57 pm

    Markets tend to function well when a sufficient number of diverse investors interact (liquid markets), and they tend to become fragile when this diversity breaks down (illiquid markets). In an illiquid market weak hands will act in concert, and take the same position based on the observations of others; independent of their own. This of course, leaves them vulnerable to getting blindsided by predatory traders and predatory algorithms.

    The attendant volatility and velocity of current moves, along with the absence of follow-through, is evidence of this phenomena. In spite of the Fed’s almost daily injections of liquidity, headline risk regarding sovereign debt spreads continues to embolden parasitic sellers. The bulls have stepped up to the plate however, and brought the market back after each downturn, and it is right back to where it started.

    But, as the Red Queen said to Alice, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running (buying) you can do to keep in the same place”.

  7. vic on November 11, 2011 9:19 pm

    Mr. Philips. all your observations are piercing and illuminating. and they go up as independent pieces on our site. IF you would email me with them, I would put them right up. I wish that I had the luxury of going point counterpoint with you on a daily basis, as I think we would make a great soft shoe even on video. but the 7 kids sometimes gets in way of expansive activities. vic

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