Oct
14
I Have Often Thought, from Victor Niederhoffer
October 14, 2011 |
To the tune of The Street Where You Live from My Fair Lady :
I have often thought
that the street is caught
in a crazy dance to relate the fance of the 1920's and 1970's
to the present.
How could similarities
between the depression
and the current situation have
relevance for markets.
Cycles, things, information, are not unchanged.
Anatoly Veltman writes:
I agree that statistical indicators should NOT be relied upon, as markets have not just changed — but rather to n's degree. Yet, this is not to be confused with charting.
Throughout the non-electronic history of markets, keen statistics would yield competitive edge - as evidenced by the Chair's trading awards over decades pre-2007. Roughly coinciding with volume takeover by the machines of current era, I believe, gone are the statistical methods of yesterday.
As to charting, which remained more art than science — the machines have yet to catch up to human brain's artistic idiosyncrasies. Somewhat akin to AI's chess challenges… But even tougher here for the machines, as humans may change/bend market rules or be more selective of contest arena.
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