Oct

5

T@leb, by Kim Zussman

October 5, 2011 |

T@leb: " We haven’t done anything constructive in three and a half years. " (Source: Bloomberg )

Especially advising everyone on the planet to short bonds a year and a half ago (plus or minus the square root of infinity)

Ken Drees comments:

Which reminds me is there a practice or routine that traders go through to look back on past sectors or trade ideas that stopped producing? So this short bonds was a bust but maybe now is the time? A case for me is the uranium stock group which was coasting along rather well but the sector got destroyed by the March Japan earthquake–now some six months later I see them still making 52 week lows as of yesterday. In the past I would get tired of waiting and the idea gets put into the cold case files dept –now I seem to check things more often–and that seems to be useful.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

1 Comment so far

  1. Conrad on October 6, 2011 5:18 am

    Actually I long the nuclear energy utility sector right before the quake, rather unsatifying I long called exc and suffered heavily.

    Well, as utilities are bearish indicators, they are on a rise since early march which sucesfully predicted the retreat of the general market.

    Shorting bond is a false trap when S&P downgraded the T-Bond in early august, you can see a low volume build up (my definition of build up is volume getting smaller and price going higher)with low volatility since april. From that we can tell the bond are in a strong rally not easily controlled under normal circumstances.

    The current short squeeze is a great time for speculators to long the ES yet pay close attention to volume and other signs. The rally of bonds are not over.

    This situation reminds me of Andre Kostolany reminiciense of the 1980 “Death of Equities” scene. Where he strongly suggest that the dollar are really stronger than most think and I believe there have been too much individuals longing the dollar, allowing big banks and speculators to corner the USD, I do expect a strong USD rally to be honest alongside with a temp short squeeze in the ES.

    My recommendations:

    Long DIS
    Long DXZ1
    Long ES until 1220 or a big spike in volume

Archives

Resources & Links

Search