Sep
25
The 4 Biggest Declines of Last 25 Years, from Victor Niederhoffer
September 25, 2011 |
While we eschew politics on this list, I must say that the 4 biggest declines of last 25 years all seem to be politically based to me. The one in 1987 caused by Baker talking the dollar down, the one in 2008 caused by bailout, + and - the one a month ago by back and forth about not reducing the deficit.
The one this week to me, caused mainly by seeing the leopard has not changed his spots. The idea of class warfare, the middle class against the upper class is antithetic to prosperity. It creates envy. Reduces revenues. Reduces jobs. And creates a general feeling of "what can the other guy do for me or what does he want from me". There was a delayed reaction to it over the weekend. A big down open that was reversed in part. Then 2 more huge one and free fall. The beaten favorite is relevant.
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I take the combination of the current fall (both in equities and commodities) and the US decision to sell weapons to Taiwan as a vote down for the Chinese economy. It is a vote by the world financial community and government intelligence. Currently trading in China, I feel the vote is well-warranted. It is a correction from the prior hallucination that China can survive itself.