To a non-hand-eye-athlete this article "Nadal's Lethal Forehand" was very interesting. Nadal's top-spin of 3,200 RPM versus Federer at 2,700 and Sampras at 1,700, is aided (if I understand correctly) by his palm pointing towards the sky prior to contact. At the same time his body angle and straight arm provide added force. To the novice spectator it would seem most players must concentrate on developing one or the other as increased ability in one area is detrimental to the other, at least in the same shot.

This reminds me of combining mean reversion with trend following. I started by constructing separate strategies in each area and using them as non correlated members of a portfolio. Later I found that I could do better by using the information from each in the same system. Note that I track performance statistics separately for risk management, but have combined the signals. Best of both worlds?

The article also notes how Nadal finishes his swing either at his shoulder for high hit balls or over his head for low hit balls. For any onlooker (though they may not be able to react) one can see if the ball is high or low but I think this is a good example of adapting the same strategy to multiple scenarios, if not even a regime.

Lastly, Nadal's returns bounce an average 33 inches on hardcourts and 64 inches on clay courts. In my humble opinion it seems as though the already increased volatility of global markets has provided an environment where macro driven price action is more likely to move further than usual. I understand that implied volatility is highly correlated to historical or realized volatility, but might it be predictive, or… might it allow for (not cause) more extreme moves? Vol rises, spreads widen, the same order can now move the market further?

Just thoughts. Any information on the tennis side of this post would be greatly appreciated! Wm

Paolo Pezzutti writes:

I find very interesting that he tends to use his forehand as often as he can. The main lesson here is that he focuses and leverages on his strength. Normally we tend to work on our weaknesses to reach a balanced performance. Rather, this is an example about it is more rewarding to insist and further exploit to the extreme your best shots. Nadal uses his backhand only if he really has to do it. Instead of working hard in order to become an average performer in many different areas, it is much more rewarding to concentrate your mental and physical energies to exploit the talent you have in one specific matter. This is something I may have realized too late in my life, but it is a good lesson anyway. Paolo





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