Jul
24
Amid the Terrible Talk, from Victor Niederhoffer
July 24, 2011 |
Amid the terrible talk about what might happen in Asia overnight, Israel change overnight which is about 95% correlated with S&P change overnight moved to levels at a 10 day high. Thus the posturing of the parties pointing to the terrible fate of the financial markets which are all near 2 month and 5 3 year highs can be seen as part of the Uncle Remus stories about "don't throw me in the briar patch".
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When the markets are in a weak condition, it doesn’t take too much to talk them down - and also not much to actually intervene and sell them down.
More posturing…I think we are going to hold this 37-40 area on ES and ensure we close negative with some follow through tomorrow / Wednesday. Should be enough to ruffle some feathers.
Bigger picture, I am wondering how much of this last rally was short covering with few new longs entering. If so, we could be close to a more substantial correction.
At the risk of brining politics to the dinner party: the European Union seems to have given up any pretence of legitimacy and the rule of law. Article 125 of the European Treaty:
“The Union shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State.”
Of course, we must ignore silly little things like the rule of law when political exigencies dictate, or the markets might be made to take a sharp fall.
Shadows of Terrible Talk
Given much ado these recent years about BRICs, consider a recent article by India’s former foreign-defense-finance mister (J. Singh)…
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/singh16/English
As referenced therein, two systems — one transparent, one closed — face similar problems within the next 3 years. How each may approach and eventually comes to resolve issues of economic justice and political reform once again provides clarity of a singularity that remains a constant throughout human history: transparent systems are more likely to resolve systemic conflict; closed systems protract if not exacerbate disproportionate, often unjust financial imbalances and denials of human (or civil) rights, wherefrom a shadow is cast.
That shadow manifests into a form of terrible talk, be it among markets or within political salons. It (the talk) parallels all that unknown as perpetuated by the very nature of that which is hidden, that which has been made to be nontransparent. As a consequence, stealth becomes seen where it was intended to be camouflaged.
On the day that our national debt ceiling will once again be raised, it is perhaps noteworthy that all the terrible talk, not just among our own citizenry but also within the circles of our friends and enemies alike, percludes in some small way any further extension of the dark shadows that pervade much of the less- than-freer regions of our world…
But for a train wreck that could otherwise have been averted…
dr