May

28

One of the most common problems in trying to get the edge on markets is the situation where you have two or more different ways of approaching your views as to what's going to happen and you have to come up with a decision. For examples it's Friday, and the employment number is coming out. You know that up days before it are bullish. Yet at the same times fixed income was way down the previous day, and that's bearish. What do you do. Do you weigh based on likelihoods? Or just take the one with a lower probability of chance occurrence. Or do you put them all together? Or bootstrap them in some way? Here's a good article on the approaches that are used.


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