May

19

 Bacon said:

DON'T look at anybody else's selections of prices or handicaps before making your own selections and prices. That is a rule with no exceptions.

If you look at some other prices or selections first, the line you will come up with will be a sort of scrambling of his line and your line. Almost invariably, it will combine the weakest features of both. You'll have the mistakes and trite opinions of his line and yours. But the possible 'bright work' and getting-away-from-the-public part of his figures and yours, will be discarded.

A recent study provides evidence of the wisdom of Bacon's advice:

SHARING INFORMATION CORRUPTS WISDOM OF CROWDS

"When people can learn what others think, the wisdom of crowds may veer towards ignorance.

In a new study of crowd wisdom — the statistical phenomenon by which individual biases cancel each other out, distilling hundreds or thousands of individual guesses into uncannily accurate average answers — researchers told test participants about their peers' guesses. As a result, their group insight went awry. …"


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