May

19

Bacon said:

DON'T look at anybody else's selections of prices or handicaps before making your own selections and prices. That is a rule with no exceptions.

If you look at some other prices or selections first, the line you will come up with will be a sort of scrambling of his line and your line. Almost invariably, it will combine the weakest features of both. You'll have the mistakes and trite opinions of his line and yours. But the possible 'bright work' and getting-away-from-the-public part of his figures and yours, will be discarded.

A recent study provides evidence of the wisdom of Bacon's advice:

SHARING INFORMATION CORRUPTS WISDOM OF CROWDS

"When people can learn what others think, the wisdom of crowds may veer towards ignorance.

In a new study of crowd wisdom — the statistical phenomenon by which individual biases cancel each other out, distilling hundreds or thousands of individual guesses into uncannily accurate average answers — researchers told test participants about their peers' guesses. As a result, their group insight went awry. …"


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4 Comments so far

  1. Andre Wallin on May 20, 2011 10:28 am

    very x3 important especially today you almost have to be tied to the mast and blind folded to avoid the sirens.

  2. Andre Wallin on May 20, 2011 1:58 pm

    however, if the sirens sound is too loud and sending the same message it is worth embracing the opposite…like today’s morning dip

  3. Johan Grobler on May 20, 2011 7:29 pm

    Interesting indeed. And it reminds me (a social scientist) of the “rule of ever changing cycles” in research findings in the social sciences.

  4. Nick on May 21, 2011 12:22 pm

    Bacon and the study are talking about two different issues. The study says the average answer is more accurate when people act independently. That doesn’t mean individuals are better off ignoring other answers, as is suggested by Bacon. It’s possible the average answer is worse when people listen to peers, and for each individual to still be better off listening to their peers. Google ivo welch and information cascade for more info.

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