May

14

 Here's an amazing little animated graph showing all the predictions of sunspot activity in real time. Note how the the projections keep getting smaller and smaller.

A good article to point you in the right direction concerning sunspots and solar radiation is here.

Correlating wheat prices with sunspot numbers is not new, Herschel did it in 1801-1805 when he took the wheat price data from Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations," and plotted it against the number of sunspots.

Here's an excellent paper describing the price of wool and wheat in early England. The charts are an invaluable source of data and are priceless.

Much work needs to be done on correlating the number of sunspots and or solar flux vs grain prices and the predictability of grain prices vs sunspots should be examined. Also, the lead times should be exhaustively studied.

Personally, I think that the sunspot numbers provide the mother-lode of a meal for a lifetime.

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

This work must be supplemented by the related work of Harol Thayer Davis in the economic analysis of time series circa 1926 on the same subject and the follow up work of the Cowles Commission in their early days. 


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