Would you attribute the decline to knowledge that the man who doesn't like to spike the ball is 100% likely to become boss and increase the service rates for fairness, or the positions of the chief terrorist are being liquidated, or the spillover declines in metals and commodities and oil and oats down 5% is affecting stocks, or my favorite disillusionment, that the father figure above all next to the scholarly former Princeton chair has shown his spots, and they are black, and new info will be disclosed by the temporarily disgraced and discarded right hand man, and that this creates the loss of a father figure et al.

Gary Rogan writes:

100% is way too high. Both predecessors had over 90% popularity at their respective warrior moments of glory but it didn't last at one for the first one, and only barely for the second one.

He is resorting to deliberate confusion about releasing the photos just to prolong this for a few more days. He has done a lot of damage to the meme that his not of this place, but only temporarily. In just a couple of weeks he will face a renewed assault. He'll be winning on the gas price then and talking that up, but there is nothing he can do about unemployment: there is a feedback mechanism in place, the higher his chances are the higher unemployment will go.

Victor Niederhoffer writes:

Exactly the latter point you make. But what does intrade say now?

Gary Rogan writes: 

Well, even that is only at 60.9, but I have not found its predictive power meaningful so far in advance. Two days in advance it's really good because people with access to some hard data or are doing the cheating are moving the numbers, but now it's just as susceptible to the temporarily enthusiasm as an average man on the street.

Jim Sogi writes:

The Princeton pundit did say the spike in commodities was going to be short lived a few days back. Remember also the advice to buy stocks the day before the low. It may be worthwhile not to discount them at their word on these things because they have a lot at stake and are willing to do anything to stay in power.


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