Apr

12

Question, from Gary Rogan

April 12, 2011 |

 Is the current market price of any commodity predictive of any future price in a way that can be reliably exploited?

Jeff Watson writes:

Goldman Sachs thinks so with some of their long only funds. Also, whenever a brand new commodity contract is introduced (something like the old High Fructose Corn Syrup contract), the price within the first 10 minutes of trading can offer great predictive value. Also, many floor traders know when a contract is trading they can reliably predict when the inside market is going from….say .75 bid to .75 sellers, which is a very reliable exploitation….but of course one will have to pony up the money for a lease on a seat to trade that inside market.


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