Mar
1
Briefly Speaking, from Victor Niederhoffer
March 1, 2011 |
Today it will be another fight between the almatarians and the reversalists. Last month, it was a massacre in favor of the former.
Andrea Ravano writes:
Doomsters on the run advising on "how fearful this market is". Surely, they will be right sooner or later, unless of course they have some leverage in their positions.
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
I am on the run.
Steve Ellison writes:
As I noted when I studied the almanac effect a month ago, the almanac has only worked well in 3 of the past 6 years, and it had a good year in 2010. I have a hunch the introduction of the Barclay almanac fund may be a turning point.
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Optmists on the run advising on “how bullish this market is” whether crude oil is $100 or $200 per barrel. A few weeks ago the consensus among the “experts” was that Tunisia was an isolated event. Then came Egypt. The consensus then was that it was going to be contained within Egypt and how bullish such a democratic event would be for stocks. Then came Lybia and a bigger surge in oil prices. And then the consensus was that Lybia presented no problem since it only produces a small percentage of global oil demand. Now while stock indices free fall in the Middle East everyone is highly confident that there will be no revolt in Saudi Arabia. Hhhmmm…
I am not running so hard anymore and indeed I believe the weather gage is not entirely in the enemy’s favor. vic