During my 50 years trading stocks and commodities, I have seen many panics related to world events . On average, the panic has been dissipated quickly and after the big down day, and perhaps a further terrible blow to force the trader's partners to force them out for safety's sake, (not one known to me, however who always says reduce by half), I have seen grand opportunities to haul out the canes. I have lost so many fortunes by being afraid of such things as Russia's entry into Poland and Hungary (a foregone conclusion), and wars in the Mideast. However, on the other hand, when a panic occurs because a speculator is weak, and there is an opportunity to squeeze, or there is more to sell to buy from the weak speculator, then invariably the market will continue until the speculator is wiped out. Thus, the market moves to create busts and booms, but only to take away the chips of those who can be bluffed out to fold.





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1 Comment so far

  1. douglas roberts dimick on February 9, 2011 10:24 am

    Fast Food Dianetics

    For nearly three years, I have wondered how you maintain that juxtaposition between your speculator’s wit and wonder relative to your evolved statistical processes, be it for stocks, bonds, commodities, sports prognostications, and other such matters of daily notation. It smacks of Hubbard’s notion of “auditing” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianetics).

    In the section on you in my current book project, The Theory of Quantitative Relativity, a recounting of your published highlights, personally and professionally, amplify what appears at daspec to be coined in name as being “flexion” in nature as relative to a given discipline or art form (or synthesis thereof). Yes, “irrational exuberance” would be demonstrative.

    Perhaps reaching here, I wonder if you were so focused when you began those 50 years prior with your quantitative endeavors in market speculation.

    Is the notion of flexionics progressively derogatory or more so the sanctioned systematics of those corresponding outcomes that one may so decry?

    Regardless, has it not been always so, be it with socialism or capitalism, communistic or democratic?

    You see such dualities operating in broad daylight here in China – ironic, given the absence of transparency. Where a perceived, speculative, or well publicized and readily acknowledged juxtaposition is found, such as between those two, polemic (economic and political) pairings, an eventually appears, such as now in fashion among the Beijing guanxi boys, being Confucianism…

    See http://www.digitalnpq.org/archive/2010_spring/06_bell.html

    Are not the contra-speculations (e.g., long/short) operating within the markets similar in appearance if not with systematics of the human condition, which takes on forms of ultra-projection during times of panic?

    Our being “afraid of such things” is how such overwhelming or crisis-like events originate and, therefore, become part of the very systematics that are then criticized as being flexion either in nature of the thing itself or its outcome.

    More often than not, particularly in our world, increasingly nourished “half-know/half-guess human contrasts of… push-button-money and fast-food-love-stories” (Laobans.the.movie: http://blog.sina.com.cn/laobans), we forgo any auditing, instead preferring to forget what we eat.


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