Jan

20

Did people just jump in and buy the dip, or was that the result of legions of traders going flat overnight? Wasn't a huge move, but I kind of expected more of a panic.

Victor Niederhoffer comments:

One who was short and waiting could cover his shorts short of the big house.

Paolo Pezzutti writes:

…interesting to know if there is a ten minute effect…

Victor Niederhoffer responds:

Believe it much dissipated and changed in 2010.

Russell Sears writes:

What shocked me was the out performance of the Dow compared to the S&P, especially given the relatively low inter-day vol.

To check this out I did the following, took the ln close to close Dow - ln close to close S&P then ranked them. Today was rank 37th of the 2700 days I look at. Then I took this out performance divided by the max (interdayvol Dow, inter-day vol S&P) where inter-day vol is LN(high/low) for the day. This ratio placed was number one !

I do not know what this out performance means, but looking at the dates that "beat" today or came close did not bring pleasant memories back. They were 2000 to 2001 vintage then big time gap and appeared again in Sept 2008-Jan 2009 and another small time gap. This would indicate that when things get volatile and down it often best to be in the big Dow.

What this means with a relatively weak volatile period I do not know.

I will leave it to the reader to come up with a test to see if this is a indicator of Large over small cap shift that is reverse the small outperforming large gap the last couple of years.


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