Jan

18

Krisrock writes:

Sports betting is about emotion more than reason.

People love the Patriots and bet according to their heart.They count one way and others count other way, proving how you can get beat with 100% confidence you're right and all those who you disagree with are wrong.

Walters proves that point especially in the equity markets…he just doesn't know those who count in a different way.

Pitt T. Maner III responds:

I have heard of people that have a "team-like" attachment to stocks like AAPL. It would be almost impossible for them to sell their AAPL stock; almost as difficult as it would be for a Pats fan to bet against his team.They are emotionally attached to Macs, iPods, iPhones and everything AAPL. Perhaps there is some component of this that is reflected in price action. There are not that many companies that have that sort of following. 

Jeff Watson comments: 

The devotion, attachment, or worship of a team by the general public might be the "Achilles Heel" that allows them to exploited and/or manipulated by the flexions. It would be hard to find something rational with devotion, attachment, or worship.

 Gary Rogan Responds:

Most of the story was about his sports betting operation, which looked quite impressive and totally devoid of emotion. He counts, knows a lot about all the teams, diversifies, employs experts with total recall who remember even more, and on top of it attempts to "push the line". The story ended with his complaint about the market, but it seemed like he simply didn't apply any of his normal techniques to a new area and got wiped out.

Jeff Watson comments:

Walters attempts to "push" the point spread is no different than a local at an exchange or a market maker trying to goose the bids or offers to move the direction of trading to prices that have the most liquidity, stops, and booby traps for the unsuspecting. The sports gambling market is really no different than any other market when you think about it, and it's probably percentage wise, more honest.

 

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2 Comments so far

  1. Andre Wallin on January 18, 2011 1:39 pm

    thought it was interesting that those with the most talent didn’t win the most in this industry. those who are right in the middle and can connect with the various talent does the best. in the middle, not too hot and not too cold seems to be the recipe for life. however, i bet billy had to master sports betting on his own in the beginning so he could gain the trust of the masters of the field later on.

  2. Mark Johnson on January 18, 2011 5:45 pm

    Wannabe a hotshot wiseguy?

    I wonder if some of these could also fit professional traders?

    From Frank rosenthal

    Just follow along with me.

    Here’s a partial list of Q’s & A’s that may help you to better determine your individual suitability for reaching that shining green rainbow!

    Q. Check out you families medical history. Heart disease, hypertension or diabetes would likely disqualify you over the long haul Additionally; ulcer propensity would also place you in a very high-risk zone.

    A. You could bleed to death or hasten cardiac arrest. No sense getting off to a deadly start. You’d be better off trying the art of gardening rather than bucking heads with professional gamblers.

    Q. Do you have a friendly banker, underground shylock or the connections to obtain unsecured loans.

    A. You’re going to need one or the other, probably all three. Shys charge 6/5 and higher; your apprenticeship can become financially volatile and precarious.

    Q. Do you have easy accesses to airports or bus terminals? Would you hitch hike a ride heading south if needed?

    A. There’s bound to come a time when you’ll need to take it on the Duffy. We all have. You’re not likely to be spared.

    Q. Are you average or overly possessed when it comes to good old fashioned wholesome sexual intercourse?

    A. If you are, you’ve got problems. Tough to become euphoric or sexually aroused on a regular basis when you get hammered with a 5 spot after leading by 4 with 2 outs in the ninth. Sledgehammers are an occupational hazard as your working towards a PH. D. And it doesn’t matter what the chick looks like. Viagra, you’ll need the entire pharmaceutical industry to straighten you out. Just ask any “Wiseguy” how often he scores and his ratio of missions accomplished.

    Q. Are you patient, tolerant, deliberate and pragmatic?

    A. You’ll need all four, and then some.

    Q. Can you adjust to dieting over various periods of time?

    A. You’ll need to be. There will be times, sometimes prolonged when there won’t be any food on the table. Eating snowballs during the winter season is part of the initiating process. I’ve been there, sucking on snowballs while the bookmakers were vacationing in sunny Miami Beach enjoying fresh squeezed orange juice, coconuts and delicious stone crabs.

    Q. Have you ever experienced or been through periods of depression?

    A. Be extremely careful on this one, otherwise you could be looking for a tall bridge or a high rise in Sin City when you’re fresh out of trump/money.

    Q. Alcohol consumption. Are you’re merely a social drinker who enjoys a hearty glass of wine or couple of cocktails before or during diner.

    A. Social drinking is a controversial at best. Constant sobriety is and has been a vital pre requisite when you’re up against the house advantage/odds. You can’t be “half pregnant.” Either you are or your not. You need to be dead sharp from daybreak through the wee hours of the evening. Bookies can manage hangovers, you can’t. Alcohol at any level destroys brain cells. That’s a medical fact, and yes the human brain does provide billions of cells, but you’d be better off keeping them healthy. Abstinence is recommended.

    Q. Can you interact socially?

    A. The “Wiseguy” fraternity does not resemble the house of “Holy Cardinals.” They play rough, sometimes dirty pool. They’ll spring traps, misdirection, misinformation and a host of tricks that rookies are not equipped or prepared for. Rookie Beware!

    Those are just a few of the facts that one should consider before entering into an industry that requires total and absolute dedication. Academic brilliance or scholastic achievement can be helpful, but it does not guarantee success in games of chance. Remember too, that the zebras can and many times do reverse the ultimate outcome of your investments. Then you may have to deal with the long arms of justice. That’s another tricky area that you should consider. Unless you reside in a free zone you’re subject to run up against some overzealous prosecutors, and believe me, they’re out there ready to stalk you for an opportunity to enhance and advance their professional reputations.

    I used to eat, drink and sleep for around the clock non-stop action. Day games, night games, propositions, the public library, sweating time. It’s a grind, not really worth it considering your various alternatives. You can achieve a high degree of professional success minus the extra baggage that “Wiseguys” are strapped with. Yes, it can become a glorified and financially successful endeavor, but it only happens to an elite group of masochists. Then there’s the element of year in and year out consistency. I’m speaking from first hand experience, and my friends, they were not all-productive or glorious years. Sometimes they were painful, unrewarding and occasionally life threatening. Those are the facts. You be the judge!”

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