Nov

29

Disregarding the penumbra of small moves, 5 big 10 reversals in a row… what does it portend?

Anatoly Veltman writes:

In the good old times, when charting still worked– increased choppiness of this magnitude tipped pending "previous trend" reversal. Currently, "previous trend" would have to be the up-move from 1000 to 122.

George Parkanyi writes:

I would agree with Anatoly in this situation. Quiet day today, yet treasuries and VIX up a lot on a relatively mild 8 point S&P drop. Major skittishness here I think precursing a downdraft. (Asian markets looking scared in particular with China's anti-inflation sabre-rattling.) But all the bailouts and easings won't just vanish either, so I'm thinking we're at/near the top of some kind of range, to be pushed around for a while by the news-du-jour. Don't have any great conviction for where we go next, but if you put a gun to my head, short-term I would sell equities and commodities and buy treasuries or just go to cash. (And two weeks from now I'll be writing about why that was a bad idea.)


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2 Comments so far

  1. duncan on November 29, 2010 3:22 pm

    I think of note that much of the reversing activity occured at night so if one was not already on board the train had long since departed the station by sunrise.

  2. Andre Wallin on November 29, 2010 5:46 pm

    most obvious in least obvious way.

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