Oct

25

Novie expires this week. No significant cold weather is showing into most of next month. Storage inventory is likely going to finish at or very close to the levels of last year. We should begin seeing withdrawals right on the normal schedule according to my models. On the long term bullish side I am beginning to notice a slowing in the growth of production. It still is increasing, but at a slower pace. At this point the bulls can hope for a colder than normal winter in the Midwest and Northeast. Exporting LNG might also be helpful… on the LNG front the NBP/HH spreads are showing the gas should stay in Europe this winter. Also at these low [price] levels I'm hearing talk of coal plants in the SE turning off in favor of gas (aka coal-gas switching), which will help boost gas demand.

Just my $0.02… I am a natural gas market analyst in my day job.


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