Oct

21

Variation in US historical CPI has not been stable over the past 100 years. Using BLS data (1913-2010), compared mean monthly change in CPI for months prior to one's birth spasm (4/55) and after. Here is the comparison of mean monthly change in CPI before one (BK "0") and after one (AK "1")

Two-sample T for CPI:

BK AK    N   Mean  StDev  SE Mean
0           507  0.203  0.933    0.041     T=-2.58
1           665  0.315  0.354    0.014

Inflation has been significantly higher since one's random aggregation, consistent with the central bank's anti-deflationary bent and one's corpulent dint.

In addition, volatility of monthly CPI has been severely curtailed in the inflationary era:

Test for Equal Variances: CPI versus BK AK

95% Bonferroni confidence intervals for standard deviations

BK AK    N    Lower     StDev    Upper
         0  507  0.8714  0.9329  1.003
         1  665  0.3337  0.3543  0.377

F-Test (normal distribution)
Test statistic = 6.93, p-value = 0.000

Levene's Test (any continuous distribution)
Test statistic = 167.58, p-value = 0.000


 


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