Sep

17

sunspotsSunspots form on the sun due to magnetic anomalies in the sun, the oscillation of the magnetic field results in sunspots being formed. Sunspots are cyclical in nature and right now, we should be gearing up for a susnpot peak, yet there are very few sunspots. In fact, for the past 7 years years, the number of sunspots has been much below average and seems to be going down vis a vis past cycles. Anyways, here's a good article predicting that sunspots will disappear for many decades starting in the year 2016. 

The article states that, "The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age." The market implications of a change of this magnitude cannot even be fathomed, especially with the high population of humans on the planet .As an amateur radio operator, the study of sunspots is one of my interests, and I plot the numbers every day (a habit I started in high school). I also study things like the J index, K index, and total solar output (which has been declining for years.) I have seen a downward trend in solar output and sunspots for several years.

Someday, the markets will wake up to the solar events, which could(at worst case) have a very detrimental effect on our climate and economy on the earth .

While the aforementioned article is mere speculation, it is a fact that the sun has cycles, and right now the sun is going into a "solar minimum."
There might be climate change going on, but it will be the type of climate change that will be the exact opposite of what Mr. Gore and the cabal of anti business academics and government types so eloquently and passionately tried to sell the general public. In fact, this type of climate change would require the exact opposite of what people of Mr. Gore's ilk profess, and demand everyone to increase their carbon footprint by multiples.
Either way, the market implications of a change in solar output are enormous, (Like nothing we've ever seen before) and deserve statistical modeling for different scenarios. Events of this magnitude, the climate changes, occur in a matter of months, not decades, so time is of the essence.


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6 Comments so far

  1. Jeff Watson on September 17, 2010 5:45 pm

    ed: could you please correct the spelling in the title; The word is disappearing, not dissapearing. Thanks, jeff

  2. andre wallin on September 17, 2010 8:01 pm

    thank you for posting documentary Floored. I was a clerk at the cbot 3 years back and moved on to electronic trading. It reminds me that there are increasingly no free lunches any more and that you must essentially be able to predict the future over and over again in order to have any shot at making money in my generation. While this may seem ridiculous, I find that after a while you have this sixth sense that price will move in one direction or another and it is because you are in the top 5% of traders and price goes that direction based on the internalizing of current market behavior given the circumstances/context. You must read price action and you must be able to size your positions, enter and exit according to your personality. If you can achieve these you will be successful in the short run…until you get married! Then you’re done.

  3. Sunspots « Masteroftheuniverse’s Weblog on September 18, 2010 5:19 pm

    […] leave a comment » I wrote an article over at Daily Speculations on Disappearing Sunspots. This is a natural phenomena that could have disasterous consequences and one should be aware of these possibilities. […]

  4. Craig Bowles on September 20, 2010 6:28 am

    Daily spots are shown here: http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne-year.html

    The current ramp up is pretty weak still. Scientists thought we’d be pushing 100 spots by now. If you look at a long-term graph, we previously had four peaks that were higher than normal if I remember right. Historically, you have maybe three sub-par peaks that follow.

    The Unified Cycle’s composite index peaked in 2007 and has the next major bottom around 2035. That index used everything from a 515-year down to a 28.7-day cycle. The top three cycles, however, are 171.72-year, 57.24-year, and 19.08 year cycles. All three peaked in 2007. The 19.08 year starts improving mid 2016 and peaks in 2026 just before the 57.24-year troughs. You can glimpse the eclipse data and see the early 2020s should be a good period. The 2030 year is interesting as that’s also the civil war cycle, so even avoiding war suggests great pressures building up. 2064 is a peak for both the 19.08 and the 57.24-year cycles.

  5. Jeff Watson on September 20, 2010 9:06 am

    I, Personally like to use NASA’s site, http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml in combination with the data from WWV and WWVH. Private contractors seem to have an agenda and I prefer to get my science as agenda free as possible. I also like to look at the consesnus of my fellow hams, and a plurality see sunspots headed towards to a centuries low starting with this cycle. Most other surveys agree with this hypothesis with fre dissentions. Already the solar flux is in a downward spiral. Oh well, time will tell and it might be time to get out that 160 Meter and 80 Meter rig because that’s all that will work below VHF. I make no claim to be a sunspot expert and am just the lowliest user…..a ham radio operator.

  6. Alex on September 27, 2010 7:52 pm

    I think it’s great to be aware of the overall climate risk in terms of solar output, but don’t politicize it when we’re seeing real global warming happening in the space of a single lifetime - as my Finnish friends will attest.

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