Eldest Children, from Jeff Watson

September 11, 2010 |

my eldest daughter, by carl larssenIn most families the sons will be eldest sons and the daughters eldest daughters. Take a population of 200 families that have two children. The fraction that will be eldest boys or girls will be 3/4. Look at a population of 200 that each have 3 kids and the fraction of eldest will be 7/12. Only children will all be eldest.

Several studies have shown that for all populations that the fraction of eldest children is over 1/2 and for most populations it is well over 1/2. With smaller families being the rule this day, the families with single children virtually cancels out the families with 4 or more children. In the US, the average number of children in a family has been reported to be between 2.1-2.3 which would validate that most children are eldest with a fraction ranging from ~ 7/12-3/4..


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