Aug

31

The Game, from Jim Sogi

August 31, 2010 |

a nobel prizeThis whole news release game is silly. The market is gun shy ahead of announcements and the book drops to nothing guaranteeing a crazy move. The reaction seems always to be behind the form. The info is stale and old. The news producers of course want attention to sell copy.

The consensus game is silly, asking a bunch of economists who can't really seem to get much of anything right or agree on much to give a guestimate of data that is adjusted, manipulated, dated, gathered in questionable means… When the actual number is above or below the guess, oh my! Then what does that really mean?

Each participant in these games has a utility, each has a relative ability to achieve or execute, and each has relative urgency and importance. These are some of the criteria used to evaluate the relative utilities. The real trick is to define the issues in such a manner that the weighting of utilities is predictive. This adds to statistical analysis of past data in that it incorporate the forward looking functions of the markets and its participants. One set of Asian traders from one part of the world trading night shifts where a small order can move the market 1/2 a percent. You have the Europeans taking over early morning with different motivations. You have Bernanke, the flexions, the white shoes, the machines, the slipper crew each with varying abilities to move the market, varying urgencies and connection to our markets, and varying self interests. Weighing these has info in a scientific manner. It was scientific enough for a Nobel prize.

Jim Lackey writes:

It has always been this way for as long as I can remember… Now when it's a stock, no one seems to mind if options say + or (10%) and after the newzi comes out earnings or otherwise the stock rallied 9%…and no one seems to miss the 1/2% moves pre/post 10am numbers as vs fed moved they were nothing and vs 2008 2-3% moves it's easy to game.

All you must do is want to own it. Sell puts in a stock cool you own it 10% lower. I buy 955am cool I buy my 2nd lot 1/2% lower 1002 am. If I didn't want to won it in the first place madd lack buys his 2nd lot trying to trade out of a loss. Let me tell you how stupid this is. but also feels so dumb with a cut and run after a 1/2% 5 minute loser.

My wife shouldnt have married a gambler…but mr Vic gave us the get the joke of all of this. A mouse with one hole is quickly taken. Figured the 1st we'd have an out even if we had to buy 1000 at the close. 


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