Aug
30
Things I Learned at the Spec Party, from Victor Niederhoffer
August 30, 2010 |
Siskind thinks that resi real estate has bottomed, commercial real estate is very overbuilt because of people working at home, and retail real estate is going to get killed because refinancing wont be available and securitization makes it impossible for any other outcome beside bankruptcy.
E believes that the oil spill will create a boom in wheat. Mr. Pitt and E believe that Iceland is the biggest disruptive geo factor on the horizon.
Mr. Hauser gave me a lesson in how all the big transfers from the rich to the deserving poor is bound to create a reduction in long term growth, as well as the difference between money and credit.
The Ted Rosenthal troupe that performed Sunday is one of best jazz trios in world.
Ken Drees adds:
Remember the howl regarding commercial real estate being the next shoe to drop a year ago? Seems like it's taking longer than first feared.
Apartment REITS doing real well now.
Pitt T. Maner III writes:
My First Spec Party was a super experience. The music at both parties was wonderful and it was privilege to meet and talk to many highly intelligent spec-listers.
It was my first time in NYC too and it was interesting to see how popular dogs are in Manhatten and how people are learning to do new things out in the open. For instance in front of the mirrored side of the Metropolitan Art Museum there was an older lady teaching a young man how to cast and fish with a fly rod on the lawn. Near the south entrance of Central Park a young lady outfitted with boxing gloves was taking a lesson along a footpath from a very strong, athletic male boxing instructor. Along the Hudson there was a location where people were practicing on the trapeze. So the city is a very stimulative environment and a place for lifelong learning.
And somehow you can walk all day and still gain weight eating shish kabobs, pastrami sandwiches, egg cream sodas, gyro sandwiches, Swedish cardamon rolls and coffee, Thai food—how is that possible?
The Museum of Natural History is just a spectacular place to learn about geology, paleontology, early man, minerals and many other things–4 hours over 2 days was just enough to get a taste. What a wonderful place it is for children too to learn about nature.
Again many thanks to our gracious hosts for a fun weekend.
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About how large xfer in wealth from rich to deserving poor reduces long term growth ..
Is this because of a change in incentives or something likewise? For, I do not see how it can reduce growth. To me, it would appear that any one-time transfer will increase general consumption in short-run.
If you could elaborate ….
Also , money and credit - are both just not guarantees, from governments, institutions, individuals? Could you elaborate on the differences that you gathered from that discussion.
Of course, when you have time and will… thanks!