Aug

20

Gold jewelry in ancient EgyptBeing a trader and not a math guy like our host I may not be able to prove there is or is not a seasonal pattern for gold to rally in August, but I am impressed when I create a seasonal chart for Au from inception to 2000 and see what looks like such a general pattern. I then run the same tool on data from 2000 to date and see about the same thing and, then again, I am very prejudiced on this seasonal concept as I wrote the first book ever on seasonal studies and even way back then we saw this pattern in gold. So to me it seems there is–at times–a trading advantage or bias here. (plus I am long as this is written from 8/11). My views on seasonals have altered since that 1973 book quite a bit; seasonals are not a mandatory thing but often offer confirmation and a suggestion of what is in store.

I have tried to attach charts to illustrate this point but size is to large (will send if you just have to have them), it is different opinions that make for horse races.

Happy Trails to all,

Larry 

Victor Niederhoffer says:

The handball senator said about seasonality, the chair agrees with
the senator. I was too hasty involved in a position. With humble mien.


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3 Comments so far

  1. Faisal Danka on August 20, 2010 9:29 am

    Pretty much in agreement. However, with people like Jim and the media focusing too much on its seasonality and its recent gear upwards with risk aversion makes me a bit cautious. I have a few levels charted technically to watch for better entry opportunities if they offer themselves. See my monthly analysis on markets (particularly Gold) at: http://desihedge.com/?p=1601

  2. juan on August 22, 2010 8:11 pm

    Send me the charts!!!

  3. korareddy on August 30, 2010 3:30 am

    wannabe from india shares seasonality from India around yellow metal ( India being the largest consumer of yellow metal ) -
    1)the SEP,OCT are the month of marriages ( it is difficult to get reliable data such as ,i.e the %age marriages distribution across the months in India to prove this though)
    2)festival season ( there are atleast few big festivals during these two months )

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